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Modeling the Potential Distribution of Kolla paulula and Xylella fastidiosa in Taiwan under Climate Change Using MaxEnt Models
Fig. 1. Distribution of <em>Kolla paulula </em> and <em>Xylella fastidiosa</em> in Taiwan. Blue triangles indicate spatially thinned occurrence records of <em>K. paulula </em>, red dots represent spatially thinned <em>X. fastidiosa</em> occurrence points, and areas shaded in purple represent grape-growing regions. The inset map provides a detailed view of the central western region of Taiwan, highlighting the distributions in the counties of Miaoli (ML), Taichung (TC), Changhua (CH), Nantou (NT), and Yunlin (YL).
Fig. 1. Distribution of Kolla paulula and Xylella fastidiosa in Taiwan. Blue triangles indicate spatially thinned occurrence records of K. paulula , red dots represent spatially thinned X. fastidiosa occurrence points, and areas shaded in purple represent grape-growing regions. The inset map provides a detailed view of the central western region of Taiwan, highlighting the distributions in the counties of Miaoli (ML), Taichung (TC), Changhua (CH), Nantou (NT), and Yunlin (YL).

Author:Wan-Hsiu Yang、Hsien-Tzung Shih、Chiou-Chu Su、Yu-Han Chen、Yaw-Jen Dong、Chung-Jan Chang、Li-Hsin Wu*

Abstract:

Climate change impacts the potential distribution of agricultural pests and pathogens. In this study, maximum entropy (MaxEnt) modeling was used to predict suitable habitats for the bacterium Xylella fastidiosa and its vector Kolla paulula in Taiwan under climate change scenarios. Bioclimatic variables were selected based on the occurrence data of both species using environmental niche factor analysis. The modeling results suggest that X. fastidiosa shows high climatic suitability in northwest Nantou, west Taichung, and southwest Miaoli, while K. paulula is mainly distributed in lowaltitude mountainous regions of Taiwan. The analysis of climatic factors suggests that temperature and precipitation are the principal factors in determining suitable habitats for both X. fastidiosa and K. paulula. Regarding the future distribution patterns under the CMIP6 GCM (BCC-CSM2-MR) and 4 shared  socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) climate change scenarios, there are no significant differences across varying carbon emissions. The distribution patterns of both species showed only a slight northward shift, with no major significant changes. This study provides the first highresolution assessment of the potential distribution of Pierce’s disease in the Asian region, offering a valuable reference for other Asian nations. Furthermore, by integrating the distribution patterns of the pathogen and its insect vector, the findings provide a comprehensive basis for future pest and disease management strategies.

Key words:MaxEnt modeling, Climate change, Xylella fastidiosa, Kolla paulula, Pierce’s disease

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Journal of
Taiwan Agricultural Research
Vol. 75, No.3 (2026) ISSN: 2790-086X Vol. 75, No.3 (2026)
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