Journal of Taiwan Agricultural Research

Author:Ming-Hwi Yao, Huu-Shen Lur, Chun Chu and Jin-Chuan Tsai

Abstract:

For agriculture production, climate must be managed both, as a resource to be used wisely on the one hand, and a hazard to be dealt with on the other. Concentration of atmospheric CO₂ has increased from about 280 to 350 ppm in the last 200 year and has increased rapidly from 315 to 350 ppm during the past 35 year along with other “greenhouse” trace gases. Increased CO₂ concentration can affect plant growth due to directly stimulation of photosynthesis. These physiological responses known as “CO₂-fertilization effects” can produce larger and more vigorous plant as well as higher yield of total dry matter. In addition, elevated CO₂ can also affect plant growth indirectly through alteration of climatic factors such as temperature and precipitation. For this reason, it is very important to understand the impact of climate change on agriculture. Because rice is one of the most important grain crops in Taiwan, it is important to understand the impact of weather and climate change on rice production. In this study DSSAT (Decision support system for agrotechnology transfer) rice model and GCM (General circulation model) were combined to predict the production of rice and to evaluate of climate change. In addition, the sensitivity analysis simulation was used to demonstrate the effect of change in each weather variable alone on rice yield performance. The result showed an increase in CO₂ level could increase yields while an increase in temperature would reduced yields. Rice production in Taichung region was predicted by the DSSAT model to change by +2.5, +4.2 and +4.0% under the GFDL, GISS and UKMO 2* CO₂ scenarios, respectively.

Key words:Climate change, Greenhouse effect, CO2 fertilization effect, General circulation model

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