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Feasibility Study on Using Meteorological Data to Forecast Litchi Yield
Correlation analysis of meteorological data collected at Kaohsiung Xipu and the auction market sold litchi amount of ‘Yu-Her-Bao’ litchi during 2013–2022. (A) The coefficients of determination (<i>R</i><sup>2</sup>) of accumulated daily hours below the threshold low temperature in different months and auction market sold litchi amount in the current year. (B) The coefficients of determinations (<i>R</i><sup>2</sup>) of accumulated temperature degrees below the threshold low temperature in different months and auction market sold litchi amount in the current year. The numerical value of the coefficients of determination is represented by the shade of red background.
Correlation analysis of meteorological data collected at Kaohsiung Xipu and the auction market sold litchi amount of ‘Yu-Her-Bao’ litchi during 2013–2022. (A) The coefficients of determination (R2) of accumulated daily hours below the threshold low temperature in different months and auction market sold litchi amount in the current year. (B) The coefficients of determinations (R2) of accumulated temperature degrees below the threshold low temperature in different months and auction market sold litchi amount in the current year. The numerical value of the coefficients of determination is represented by the shade of red background.

Author:Hsin-Hsiu Fang, Kuo-Dung Chiou, Chih-Cheng Hsu, and Wen-Li Lee*

Abstract:

The annual yield of litchi is greatly affected by the temperature in winter. Low temperature can stimulate the stable differentiation of flower buds. However, the production will be reduced due to unstable differentiation of flower buds and decreased flowering ratio in mild winter. This study considers different litchi varieties, which are distributed in the main producing areas in Taiwan. The meteorological data was collected from November to February of the following year in the past 9 years close to the weather station in the main producing area. The sum of the daily hours ranging from 10℃ to 35℃ and the total sale volume of litchi in the auction market in the current season were evaluated by regression analyses. The results indicated that the temperature in December had the highest correlation with the auction market sold litchi amount in the current year. A longer low temperature period was more critical to yield than colder temperature. The accumulated daily differential hours below 24℃, 13℃ and 22℃, respectively, and the previous sold amounts of 'Yu-Her-Bao', 'Hei-Yeh' and 'No-Mai-Tsz' litchi in the recent years are processed for correlation analysis. The coefficients of determination (R2) reached 0.6938, 0.8578, and 0.8215, respectively. In the future production estimation, depending on the variety, the number of hours below the threshold temperature in December could be applied to the equation to predict the litchi yield in the current year. This innovative method can be used as a reference for the production and sales adjustment of agricultural sector or for litchi operators to plan domestic and foreign sales orders in advance.

Key words:Litchi, Yield, Warming, Meteorological data

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Journal of
Taiwan Agricultural Research
Vol. 73, No.1 (2024) ISSN: 2790-086X Vol. 73, No.1 (2024)
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