Journal of Taiwan Agricultural Research

Author:Ming-Hwi Yao*, Huu-Shen Lur, Chun Chu and Jin-Chuan Tsai

Abstract:

    Rainfall could cause serious meteorological damage in agricultural production. Owing to the effects on hydrological cycle by global climate change, especially for the heavy rain. Meanwhile rainfall intensity is also one of the important factors affecting crop production. The objectives of this study is firstly to analyze the trends on total amount precipitation, raifall duration, rainfall intensity, and other meteorological factors in Taichung over the past 40 years (1960-1999), and to evaluate the impacts of rainfall on the growth and yield of rice. In the change of meteorological factors over the past 40 years, the results showed that the mean temperature increased 0.86℃, mean maximum temperature decreased 0.41℃, and mean minimum temperature increased more than 1.66℃. Therefore, there was a significant decline as 2℃ for diurnal differential temperature in Taichung. As for the trends of rainfall, the total amount of rainfall over the past 40 years increased slightly, but the rainfall distribution in temporal and spatial was unequal. The total amount and duration of rainfall, as well as the number of rainstorms apparently increased in spring (Mar, Apr and May) season, which could significantly influence rice yield for rice cultivation. For the establishment of rainfall forecasting the ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) model was employed and the trend of the change in precipitation during spring season could be effectively predicted.

Key words:Rainfall, Climate Change, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA)

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