Author：Yu-Bing Huang ^{1, 2} and Ming-Yaw Chiang ¹

¹ Taiwan Agricultural Research Institute, COA, Executive Yuan, Taichung, Taiwan, ROC
² Corresponding author, e-mail: YBHUANG@tari.gov.tw

ABSTRACT

    Based on the climate change and the fact that pests have been able to adapt to the island's climate and the environment of crops, their biological characteristics passed down by heredity continuously. These pests with their annual or seasonal peak of population fluctuation often resulted as epidemic pests year by year. The epidemic costs growers greatly in order to suppress pest damage. However, most pests will re-establish new population by dispersal, seeking refuge, or media transmission. If one cannot master the traces of pests, which often make effective prevention and control of material efficiency greatly discounted, so it is urgently needed to develop pest-monitoring technology in the field. With the progress of computer information technology, it can now effectively manage the big data from long-term collection. In order to show the pest dynamic information, it is ideal to use the geographic information systems (GIS) and other information networks. To establish the geographical distribution and density monitoring data in Taiwan, we set up 61 stations to collect and show the spatial dynamics of pest population and the risk of crop damage in 1994. In addition to collect the data of population density per ten-day, it provides a common control of fruit flies, masters the effective use of materials, and improves the prevention and cure efficiency. The purpose is to reduce the cost of crop production. Combined with the information of the complete geographic location, the distribution of pest spatial and land cover can be addressed quickly, and so as to assess the risk of pest occurrence and damage, which in turn improves the overall control efficiency. But the climate change has become a major global issue, researchers have started to predict the potential distributions of pest and the areas they cause economic crop damage based on the climatic data and biological models of development. Based on the potential geographical distribution of pest species, ecological niche model postulated the species that can occur in a particular area with the appropriate survival environment, climatic factors, distribution, and other biological factors. In recent years, a tool referred to as CLIMEX (CLIMatic IndEX) which could integrate with the application of information management platform, including spatial data, geographic analysis, artificial intelligence applications, data mining, and the development degree-day of organism’s model, was widely used. The tool is to detect or predict risk analysis of the potential distributions of the pests and vectors. A stable and excellent risk management model can be established based on this analysis. This study is to explore the climatic effect on the potential distribution of pests and compare the difference of present monitoring system in Taiwan. In order to assess the climate change impact on the distribution of pest or other possible risks of invasive pest. The research focuses on population growth of the Oriental fruit fly (Bactrocera dorsalis (Hendel)). Two objects are addressed: (1) Comparison of the impact of climate change on different locations, and (2) Climate stress effects on the geographic distribution of pests. The study attempts to effectively forecast the probability of dispersal of pests. Then, a real-time warning and control measures could take action according to probability of occurrence which will be useful for the farmers to manage pest dynamic.

Keywords: monitoring, geographic information systems, CLIMEX.

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