Author：Li-Hsin Wu ^{1, 2}, Yi-Ting Hsiao ¹, Chia-Hsun Chen ¹

¹ Department of Plant Medicine, National Pintung University of Science and Technology, Pintung 91201, Taiwan, ROC
² Correspondence author, to: e-mail: lihsinwuu@mail.npust.edu.tw

ABSTRACT

    Wide ranges of pests affect crop production and cause considerable yield losses. Several conceptual modelling frameworks have been proposed, and the choice of an approach depends largely on the objective of the model and the availability of data. Existing challenges on the modelling of insects are listed. Difficulties reside on the development and adaptation of adequate strategies to predict insect pests for their management to ensure enhanced agricultural production. This paper presents a summary of advances in insect population distribution and pest mapping around Asia. Following the step-wise modelling comparisons innovations, we evaluate the distributions of Trichogramma ostriniae and native host, Ostrinia furnacalis in southeastern Asia, and target host, Ostrinia nubilalis in North America, using a combination of MAXENT and CLIMEX modelling approaches. These correlative and process-based niche models led to similar predictions about the expected distribution of the two species in Asia, and enabled the emphasis of likely mismatches between the host and its natural enemy. Records of successful inundative releases involving the introduction of T. ostriniae in North America were modelled and used to adjust parameters in the CLIMEX model. Releases took place outside in the suitable climate areas identified from the native range of this species, suggesting that permanent wasp populations might only establish based on changes in temperature-related life history parameters.

Keywords: biocontrol, model comparison, environmental niche model, adaptation

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